"What Will Be The Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine"
by b
Moon of Alabama (March 19, 2022)

The Ukrainian National Security Advisor has sent a letter to the White House and the CIA to request money in support of an insurgency in Russian held areas:

The White House and the Ukrainian embassy vehemently deny that the letter is real. I however do not believe that it is faked. It just was not meant to become public. The CIA has been training 'resistance' militia in the Ukraine since 2015. To request new money for more of it is only natural.

The U.S. will finance a resistance in Ukraine through the CIA just as it did in Syria and just like it did from 1949 until the early 1950s when the U.S. financed anti-Soviet insurgency in Ukraine ended in misery.

But resistance against whom?

The premise seems to be that Russia wants to occupy the Ukraine.

It can be seen in an English language interview the Turkish state TV channel TRT had with Vitaly Klitschko, the mayor of Kiev. Klitschko accuses Russia of wanting to recreate the USSR. He rejects any negotiations for peace and wants the Ukraine to keep fighting.

After the interview the historian Gilbert Doctorow pointed out that it was Russia which first left the USSR to end the financing of outlaying provinces at the center's cost and that no one wants to recreate that situation.

As Putin ones said:

Russia has limited aims in Ukraine and will end the war and leave most of the Ukraine when those aims are achieved either by negotiations or by other means. It is the Ukraine that will have to bear the cost for it.

But Zelenski, Klitschko and the U.S. overlords do not want to see it that way. The U.S. wants to keep Russia in the Ukraine to fight it to the last Ukrainian and to damage it that way.

The Washington Post writes that there seems to be no Ukrainian urge to negotiate anything:

The U.S. seems to be happy with that stand and the secretary of state even wants to widen the war:

The only way to get to that end state is the total dismantling of Russia. That may indeed be what Blinken has in mind. What plans does he have to make it happen?

When the war to disarm the Ukraine started to my utter surprise I asked what Russia would desire as the geographic end state of the war:

Novorossiya was mentioned by Putin on April 17 2014 during a long Q-and-A session on Russian TV. The question was about federalization of Ukraine before new government elections in the just regime changed Ukraine. Putin responded:

At that time Putin did not threaten to take Novorossiya but demanded full rights for its population:

No answer was found then and Kiev has since strongly discriminated against those Russian people.

Novorossiya roughly includes the red and yellow areas in the above map. It also includes the valuable Soviet developed iron ore mines and factories of Kryvyi Rih west of the Dnieper river.

Two professional Russia experts now agree with my prediction above but chose slightly different borders than I had originally proposed:

In his latest piece the Canadian Russia specialist Patrick Armstrong writes:

In a new piece about the coming partitioning of Ukraine Gilbert Doctorow agrees:

The areas that Armstrong, Doctorow and I describe have largely Russian speaking pro-Russian populations. Yesterday some 30,000 people left the besieged Mariupol and several of them were interviewed. They all spoke out against the Azov Nazis who still hold parts of the city. They likely would not mind to become citizens of a newly founded Novorossiya that does not submit to a Russian hating government in Kiev or elsewhere.

But to hold that land Russia must first gain it. So how will the war proceed?

Russia will slowly grind down the Ukrainian defenses and then move further into Ukraine up to the new border it wants to achieve. (I do not think that it will include taking Kiev. Russia is currently just threatening it to bind Ukrainian troops.) It will hold there and help to organize a referendum for the independence from Ukraine in the areas it will hold by then. A new local militia army will be formed to defend that state. Russia will recognize the new state and sign a common defense agreement with it.

Russian troops can then go back to Russia.

As those areas are largely pro-Russian there will be little chance for an effective insurgency within them.