"Day 21 of the Russian special military operation – 3 questions"
By Andrei Raevsky (a.k.a., "the Saker")
The Vinyard of the Saker (March 17, 2022)

Today, I begin with this: something I would call a good summary of CNN’s wishful thinking

This has everything!

And against this deluge of lies, Bernhard at Moon of Alabama does a superb job deconstructing that kind of crap, see: here.

But it feels like such an uneven and lopsided battle…

How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?

I guess we will fight for as long as God gives us strength.


There were a few cities liberated today, here is the machine translation of Boris Rozhin’s report:

Finally, no map today (I am too tired to wait for Readovka)

A final comment:

I think that we are headed for a partition of the Ukraine.

The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine.

The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”.

NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.

Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?

I guess is that the devil would be in the details.

For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment [emphasis added]. How likely is that?

I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future. First, the full magnitude of the economic suicide of the Eurolemmings has to become self-evidently clear, visible, undeniable and obvious. This will take weeks and even months to become fully obvious. [emphasis added]

Second, right now the USA, Poland and the UK want war. Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia). If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russian, then maybe something can be negotiated. If all the Ukie Nazis want to live there, well that fine by me, as long as the rest of the Ukraine can truly and firmly lock that border. That might require Russian to create a Russian military base somewhere west/southwest of Kiev with a function similar to the 201st base in Tadjikistan. And no, this is not a “good” solution, but that assumes better options.

Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to stay?

Lastly, there is the issue of border.

Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?

To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.

Do you share that feeling?

And, finally, please stay on topic!

Thank you