"Amateurs think strategy, generals think logistics … Or why Ukraine is doomed"
By By F(unny) Man for the Saker Blog
The Vinyhard of the Saker (March 13, 2022)

A simple analysis of the events in real-time(1). No matter which one of the levels in the Battlespace (Tactical, Operational or Strategic) of this War (or Combined Arms Police Action, as of Mr. A. Martyanov’s definition) Is impossible because there is the fog of war, the information we are receiving is old, compromised, unsure. We do not have the full of it on real-time (not even the Staff in the High Command of the contending parties have it) nor are we able to separate that quick the relevant from irrelevant, or real from fake, propaganda from whatever…

A simple analysis of the motivations or decision-making processes in the heads of the persons in charge (such as Pres. Zelensky or the Committee (2) represented by Pres. Biden) or any of the generals managing these operations is also impossible. We can guess their intentions, we can guess their motives from a visceral Point of view, but we are not inside their heads.

If we try to answer the Question: is Ukraine going to win this war? We can obtain some Answers from a purely scientific Mathematical Perspective.

War is won or lost based on:

P1.- Logistics

P2.- Will to Fight (3)

From P1.- we can observe that in the Ukraine:

     1. Supplies:

Much of it destroyed, depleted, or captured. What is left is being used and suffering attrition. No possibilities of quick resupply by local production or by imports due to b) c) d) e)

    1. Airports:

All-important military and Civil Airports neutralized or destroyed.

    1. Ports:

All important Civilian and Military Ports and Transit Hubs neutralized or destroyed

    1. Roads:

All Roads east of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil neutralized or under fire control of artillery and VVS. All Roads west of this line are at least under fire control of VVS, and/or standoff weaponry.

    1. Railroads:

All lines west of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil cut in one or more points, neutralized or under fire control of artillery and VVS. All lines west of this line are at least under fire control of VVS and/or standoff weaponry.

From P2.- we can observe that in the Ukraine, once supplies are depleted, Ukrainian Forces can:


War is just Mathematics (7)

Mathematics never lie (8)

At this hour of the night, I should be sleeping… dammit these interesting times! (9)