"Amateurs think strategy, generals think logistics … Or why Ukraine is doomed"
By By F(unny) Man for the Saker Blog
The Vinyhard of the Saker (March 13, 2022)
A simple analysis of the events in real-time(1). No matter which one of the levels in the Battlespace (Tactical, Operational or Strategic) of this War (or Combined Arms Police Action, as of Mr. A. Martyanov’s definition) Is impossible because there is the fog of war, the information we are receiving is old, compromised, unsure. We do not have the full of it on real-time (not even the Staff in the High Command of the contending parties have it) nor are we able to separate that quick the relevant from irrelevant, or real from fake, propaganda from whatever…
A simple analysis of the motivations or decision-making processes in the heads of the persons in charge (such as Pres. Zelensky or the Committee (2) represented by Pres. Biden) or any of the generals managing these operations is also impossible. We can guess their intentions, we can guess their motives from a visceral Point of view, but we are not inside their heads.
If we try to answer the Question: is Ukraine going to win this war? We can obtain some Answers from a purely scientific Mathematical Perspective.
War is won or lost based on:
P2.- Will to Fight (3)
From P1.- we can observe that in the Ukraine:
Much of it destroyed, depleted, or captured. What is left is being used and suffering attrition. No possibilities of quick resupply by local production or by imports due to b) c) d) e)
All-important military and Civil Airports neutralized or destroyed.
All important Civilian and Military Ports and Transit Hubs neutralized or destroyed
All Roads east of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil neutralized or under fire control of artillery and VVS. All Roads west of this line are at least under fire control of VVS, and/or standoff weaponry.
All lines west of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil cut in one or more points, neutralized or under fire control of artillery and VVS. All lines west of this line are at least under fire control of VVS and/or standoff weaponry.
From P2.- we can observe that in the Ukraine, once supplies are depleted, Ukrainian Forces can:
1. Fight with sticks and stones and die (immediately)
2. They can run and die (a little bit later)
3. They can hide and die (somewhat later)
4. Fly the country abroad and live(4) (with resentment and fear, because you never know when a Spetsnaz team can pay a visit at home)
5. Surrender and live a normal life (if they are not guilty of war crimes and such)
War is just Mathematics (7)
Mathematics never lie (8)
At this hour of the night, I should be sleeping… dammit these interesting times! (9)
1. An Analysis a Posteriori can always be done; you can even earn a Ph D. on it. But for the purposes of this Essay, we are not taking them into account. We do not want to break the laws of causality in this timeline, collapsing it.
2. Committee: the only type of animal with many legs (a lot, really a lot of them) but no brain.
3. Under the effect of “VVS bombardment” and “Big Bear running after you” modifiers P2 → 0
4. This option is the favored one by Nazi and Bandera fans. Canada, the USA, and maybe some European countries are the preferred destination 5. H2W2 acronym for “How to Win War” based on the research and studies of John D. O. E.
6. Just in case, if you haven’t understood a Word of this: UKRAINE IS GOING TO LOSE BIG! I doubt it will exist anymore by this day next month.
7. Read what Mr. A. Martyanov have to say about war, if you are still unsure after reading his Three Books about military supremacy, ask any kid of age 12 when they come back home the day of a Math’s Examination. Math is War.
8. This only applies to normal timelines… in some wokefied timelines it might be considered racist, gender fluid intolerant, or politically incorrect that 2+2=4.
9. This Essay was based on a comment on Telegram about the Fact that Russian Forces are cutting all Railway Lines in the Ukraine, making resupply for the Kiev Government almost impossible, I think I lost my mind somewhere in Paragraph 3…