"A Recap Of The War In Ukraine - by Gonzalo Lira"
by b
Moon of Alabama (April 26, 2022)

Gonzalo Lira just delivered a decent recap of the war in Ukraine.

I concur with the above except for two minor details. The move on Kiev was not intended to hinder resupply to Ukrainian troops in Donbas but to 'fix' potential reinforcement around the capital. That enabled Russian troops to open the corridor from Crimea to the Russian boarder as well as to cross the Dnieper in the south and to take Kherson. Those were the most important moves for the further development of the war. [emphasis added]

I also do not believe that Russia will 'annex' the areas it is liberating from fascist control. Once librated the people in those areas will vote on becoming independent from Ukraine and the various regions, Donbas, Luhansk, Kherson, Odessa, will form states that will become part of the Federal Republic of Novorossia.

That country will be recognized and supported by Russia and its allies.


Terrific recap, and I agree with B's emendations. However on the second point I have to wonder "Why not?" Why not annex Novorussia if it is the will of the people through a referendum as done with Crimea. The new state will have to be protected anyways especially considering the vulnerability of LNDR when in the limbo of non-recognition by Ukraine and the West.

Posted by: MikeO | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 2

"Federal Republic of Novorossia." Putin, publicly at least has shown no interest in adding the current republics to the Russian Federation - though the people there are or were being issued Russian passports and rouble currency. Possibly a relationship similar to the current Russia Belarus union state?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 12:10 utc | 6

... I suspect Putin will claim that too many Russian lives have been spent rescuing the locals from (neo)Nazis and they should become part of "eternal" Russia. If the locals have any sense they'll agree... otherwise they'll be subject to more "Maidans".

Posted by: Observer | Apr 26 2022 12:44 utc | 17

I believe Gonzalo is right. Russia will indeed annex the coastal regions of Ukraine, out of necessity. These places cannot afford to become a buffer zone who would then be submitted to repeated attacks, maybe over years, carried out by NATO's Neo-Nazi goons from the "rump Ukraine" launchpad, where NATO would undoubtedly settle to harass the new state of Novorossia. The only solution, if these populations want to be left alone, is to join the Russian Federation as an autonomous state, so as to be protected by daddy's big guns, just as Crimea already is.

Posted by: Corinne | Apr 26 2022 12:50 utc | 19

Here's a good, short read on life (and death) at a Ukie front line in Donbas. . .from BBC!

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 27 2022 3:34 utc | 314