Ukraine War & Nukes Moving Around – Col Doug Macgregor"
Judging Freedom (June 14, 2023)
[3:50] Judge Napolitano: “The Spring Offensive is becoming the Summer Offensive. What is your take, or understanding, of its success or failures thus far and its likely progression from this time forward?"
[4:05] Douglas Macgregor You know, there are a lot of interesting reports out there. And if you have time -- and I don’t think that most people do – you begin to look at these reports of Ukrainian gains and you discover that in many cases the areas where they are claiming that they made gains are nowhere near the battlefield. They’re not even in the security zone. And a few times they’ll point to some ruined buildings two or three at a time inside the security zone, this 15 to 25 kilometer stretch of territory beyond the main defensive belt that the Russians have constructed. So I would tell you that there have been no gains at all, because everything always hinged on the ability of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to reach the main defensive belt, crack it, move through it in order to reach something of importance like Melitopol. It hasn’t happened. And we are now at least 11 days into what the Ukrainians said would be a two-week offensive. How much they’ve got left is anybody’s guess. The last time I looked, there were supposedly still 12 brigades in reserve. Now, are those full-strength brigades? Conceivably, that could be sixty thousand men if they’re up to five thousand each. Or are they four thousand? Are they three thousand? Two thousand? I don’t know. But at this stage of the game they have not committed those last remaining reserves. Would those last remaining reserves be the last remaining reserves period? For the duration of the war? Or just for this offensive? Sixty thousand men does not sound like a lot to me when you consider what Putin has.”
[5:45] Douglas Macgregor: “I’m told that the likely number is closer to 35 to 40 thousand. I don’t think there is much left, frankly. And I think that is reflected in the headlines that you’re getting out of Washington right now. The discussion is about as we talked last time: Frozen Conflict, setting up some sort of halfway house. Washington knows that Ukraine is close to collapse. It very definitely is. The country is destroyed. The military has been weakened beyond imagination. You’re talking about people that are being thrown into action without adequate artillery support; without adequate protection in the air and missile defense category. So when you don’t have those kinds of protections and you send in troops, many of whom are green or inexperienced you see one catastrophe after the next.”
[6:38] “And at the same time, as we’ve pointed out before, the Russians have now become much, much better than they were a year and a half ago. I think they’re probably the best army in the world at this point. They’re very competent, very well organized. They’re now able to mine behind advancing Ukrainian troops by air delivery of mines, from helicopters and from artillery. This thing has gone very badly for the Ukrainians. We don’t know how many people they’ve lost, and they’re not going to tell us the truth.”
. . .
[15:26] Douglas Macgregor: “Washington does not want an agreement. Washington’s goal remains unchanged. The problem is Washington’s goal of destroying Russia, ruining its economy, demoralizing its population, creating unrest, etc., has all failed. It’s hopeless. It’s not working. Washington is losing dramatically. That’s unambiguously clear. So Putin is saying: ‘We’re going to see what’s left, determine what is there, and then if we think it’s time, we’ll move, and I’ll let you know my decision.’ I think that just means he’s going to sweep north and then eventually over to Odessa. He’s going to take what he said he would. He’s going to seize the cities in the territories that are historically Russian. I don’t think he wants to go much further, but if pushed, he will.”
[28:37] “Washington does not want to admit that it has failed. It doesn’t want to admit that it was wrong. Absolutely not. And the danger is, if nothing else works, you widen the war. And that’s what we have to look for now from Washington.”