"Ukraine Beyond Day 100 - Breaking Resistance, Deep Operation, A New Country"
by b
Moon of Alabama (May 14, 2022)

Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Army presents the current state (vid) of the war. Two of the facts he mentions were new to me.

The Ukrainian army has moved seven brigades of its Territorial Defense Forces from the west into the area east of the Dnieper. If these were fully maned each will have had some 3,000 soldiers. That are a lot of troops but they are pure infantry without heavy weapons and with extremely little training. Col. Reisner also showed a collection of 15 videos in which members of such and other units describe hopeless situations, declare a retreat or call out their commanders for neglect.

Morale is so bad because those troops do not fare well.

Yves Smith, with a wonderful Daily Mail style headline:

I very much doubt that Russian units, the way they are currently fighting, have casualty rates of more than 10%. Russia is regularly rotating units in and out to give them some rest and to let them replenish. It is a classic Russian artillery war now and infantry only comes in when the Ukrainians are already defeated. [emphasis added]

As this permanent grinding continues the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point.

In a German language interview Col. Reisner explains what that 'breaking' of Ukrainian resistance would mean (my translation):

That moment would allow for a Russian 'deep operation' in which a second echelon of fresh Russian troops would break deep into the rear of the Ukrainian army on the west side of the Dnieper, wreak Ukrainian supply lines and chase down remaining resistance.

Some grown-ups recognize what is up.

Welcome on board Gilbert:

For economic reasons I later added a bit to that:

Iron ore from Kryvyi Rih, coal from Donbas, oil and gas from the eastern coast and the port of Mariupol together constitute the heavy industry that was the economic heart of Ukraine. Together they would constitute a viable and even well off country with 80+% of the GDP Ukraine previously had.

Russia can now afford go slow with this project. Time is on its side. Oil and gas prices are up. For Russia the war is monetarily neutral to profitable. The 'west' is already disunited. As the result of its sanctions on Russia its economies will slip into stagflation with social unrest just around the corner

Over time the urge for lifting the self-defeating sanctions will only increase the west's acceptance of Russia's solution to its NATO problem.