The Critical Hour: Myths and Reality Re: Taiwan + Ukraine as a War of Attrition
Garland Nixon Nixon and Dr. Wilmer Leon
The Critical Hour (April 1, 2023)
[partial Video Transcript]
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8:41 Brian Berletic: “... what we see the United States doing with China and also what they’ve been doing with Russia through their proxy war in Ukraine, they have been putting themselves into a corner, painting themselves into a corner with absolutely no way to get out. Every time they push on China regarding Taiwan, China very smartly avoids the type of escalation the U.S. would like to provoke and they do these very carefully – last time when Nancy Pelosi visited – they did this blockade of airspace and the sea lanes. And they’re demonstrating what they could do there. You know the US is trying to provoke some sort of war or invasion. But I think what would be most devastating of all would be a blockade. Simply, a blockade.
9:33 Garland Nixon: “Again, as we said, and what’s most devastating is patience. It’s more frustrating, exactly, to the U.S. because they need China to do something to give them some kind of a trigger. And if China – even if its just for sanctions -- does nothing, it just makes them more difficult if China waits them out.”
9:54 “Interesting article in RT. Zelenski explains why he won’t withdraw from Key Donbass City if Russia captures Artyamovsk, which we in the West know as “Bakhmut” Ukrainians will demand that their government looks for compromise with Moscow, the president said. Here’s the problem with that: The Russians are eventually going to capture Artyamovsk/Bakhmut. So he’s going to throw all his troops in there to hold on to this city which he can’t hold on to forever. So he gets another couple weeks, another couple months. So he gets six months. At some point it’s going to fall. And it’s kind of almost like desperation. We’ve got to hold on to this. We don’t have a plan afterwards. But we’re going to hold onto this for now.
10:32 Dr. Wilmer Leon: “Let me add one more thing. Zelenski says, if the troops were to surrender, his government would come under domestic and international pressure to seek peace with Russia as though he isn’t currently under domestic and international pressure to seek peace.”
10:55 Brian Berletic: “Yes, If you look at the whole interview, nothing he says makes any sense. He’s talking about somehow maintaining some sense of Victory by holding this territory. But this entire conflict has been about attrition, not territory. And as was just pointed out, they’re losing their best men, their best equipment is being thrown into the conflict. All these tanks that were being sent – we’re hearing about them getting closer and closer to Bakhmut, specifically. So, it’s a war of attrition. And the longer he keeps it going – and its a war of attrition that Ukraine is losing – the longer he keeps it going, the worse they’re going to lose it. And the harder it’s going to be to go to the negotiation with any imaginable leverage at all.”
11:49 Garland Nixon: “It is also implicit in this discussion is that he’s going to have the opportunity to seek peace at the end of this thing; that, yes, they’re going keep pushing me and sooner or later I’ll have to make a deal. When you’re laying on your back and you’ve got to say ‘Uncle,’ that ain’t a deal. And I see the conclusion of this, not from a deal, but from an unconditional surrender. But I guess you could consider an unconditional surrender a deal.
12:13 Dr. Wilmer Leon: “Well, as I’ve been saying, Garland, I think they need to fire up the USS Missouri because they’re going to float that rascal into the Black Sea and get the Japanese Emperor to sign the deal.”
12:28 Brian Berletic: “It’s a good point. And that is what we’re looking at, where if you go back to when the Minsk agreement was still in agreement, that was the best deal of all. And they should have taken it. But they didn’t. And right after Russia went into Ukraine, there was another opportunity for some sort of deal. They didn’t take it. They lost more territory. Now they’re looking at the loss of Bakhmut. Avdievka is also encircled and likely to fall and even if this Spring Offensive somehow materializes as some sort of territorial gain for Ukraine, it will be temporary. Because, again, this is a war of attrition. Russia is ready to fight this for the long term. Ukraine and its Western sponsors have already demonstrated they are incapable of doing that.”
“Just as time was in China’s side regarding Taiwan, time is on Russia’s side regarding Ukraine. And the longer they let this go, the less leverage Ukraine is going to have.
13:28 Dr. Wilmer Leon: “And really quickly, we have just about a minute left I saw on the news last night that Zelenski was visiting the troops. They showed him walking through trenches and talking to soldiers who kind of looked pretty disgusted at the whole conversation. And we hear now that some 14 tanks are coming in. The West here is getting it as though there is time here. And to your point, what are they expecting to happen and how? And that’s a hell of a question to ask in 30 seconds, but we’ve got 30 seconds.”
13:56 Brian Berletic: “It is very hard to answer at all because, again, it comes down to things like artillery shells, tanks – you cited 14 tanks – Russia has well over a thousand. They can produce well over a thousand every single year. It’s just so completely lopsided in Russia’s favor. I think they’re just kicking the can down the road, as long as they possibly can with no real plan.”
14:24 Dr. Wilmer Leon: “That’s the best answer we’ve heard, to date.”