"Russia recognition of the LDNR – a few initial thoughts"
The Vineyard of the Saker (February 21, 2022)
I listened to the full Russian Security Council meeting, then to Putin’s address to the nation, then the signing of the the treaties on cooperation and mutual support.
The first thing which I want to point out is that this was a very carefully orchestrated event, and I don’t just mean today’s live meetings and signing. For those of us who follow Russian politics very closely there can be no doubts that all this was prepared long BEFORE the Russian ultimatum to the West.
This is “the plan” which Putin once openly referred to.
Let me make this clear: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation. It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.
Next, that must be repeated again, this is NOT about the LDNR, the Donbass or even the Ukraine, this is about a new security architecture on Europe and, therefore, on our entire planet.
This means that Russia expected exactly the reaction she eventually got (western politicians are fantastically predictable, being both ignorant, stupid and arrogant) and that gave her a legal basis to take the current action (call it R2P, or moral duty, or genocide prevention or whatever else you wish).
I want to use this opportunity to express my deepest gratitude to President Biden and Chancellor Scholz who both played their role to perfection, especially Scholz with his “laughable genocide talk” comment. More generally, a lot of the credit for what just happened today goes to the leaders of the Empire who played their hand exactly as the Kremlin hoped they would.
Next, I immediately want to mention sanctions. Let it be clearly told: whatever sanctions the West now agrees upon will be what they would have done in any case [emphasis added]. I repeat: today’s recognition of the LDNR will have exactly ZERO influence on the West’s maniacal determination to destroy Russia and her people. In other words, the coming sanctions were unavoidable. That means that Russia “lost” exactly *nothing* through that move. In fact, both during the RSC meeting and his speech, Putin hinted that, if anything, western sanctions have been mostly beneficial to the Russian economy (especially the real economy, not just the value of Russian stocks or the Ruble).
Sanctions is a topic which only matters to western politicians (and their 5th and 6th column in Russia). Russians 1) remember that during her history both Russia and the USSR were more or less always under some kind of sanctions anyway and 2) that the goal of the West is not to reach an equilibrium with Russia, but to subjugate and destroy her (Putin himself said so many years ago).
In this context, the endless focus on sanctions (from hell or otherwise) is not only immoral, it is plain stupid.
Next, I want to mention four specific threats made by Putin today (note, since the PR folks at the Kremlin are still working at their usual snail’s pace, I will have to make them by memory, please keep that in mind):
• Those responsible for the massacre in Odessa will be punished by Russia.
• Putin is demanding an immediate cessation of the shelling and shooting along the LOC.
• Russia will physically prevent the Ukraine from US/NATO deploying offensive weapons to threaten Russia.
• Russia will show Banderastan how to organize a *real* “decommunization” (after indicating that the Ukraine was created by the CPSU).
Again, I will repeat here what I wrote above: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation. It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.
Unless the Ukies get it – and they probably won’t – I fully expect Russia to openly extend her “military umbrella” over the LDNR. That does not mean that she will have to move troops in, though that now is also a possibility, but that any future Ukie ground operation will be countered by the full might of the Russian military. Officially this time. The Ukros along the LOC have heard it from Putin’s own mouth: we got a crosshairs on each one of you. While I wouldn’t put *anything* beyond the Ukros, I believe that today’s clear threat will have a strong deterrent effect, whether the Ukies admit it (not gonna happen) or not.
After listening to it all, I still have a few questions to which I did not get a reply yet:
[see map of Administrative borders of the DNR vs the LOC in the article]
1. In what exact borders does Russia recognize the LNR and DNR? Along the LOC or along their original administrative borders? (see map). I strongly suspect that for a while Russia will keep a flou artistique on this topic, but what Putin meant was a recognition of the LDNR in their original administrative borders. If I am correct, this ALSO means that Russia will not liberate the rest of Banderastan, which I also fully approve of: the Ukrainians need to liberate themselves for once, enough of that constant waiting for the Moskals to liberate them from their “western friends”!
2. Putin mentioned the immense sums of money Russia has poured into the Ukraine even after it turned into Banderastan. Will Russia *finally* impose an economic embargo on that Nazi state?
3. The DNR/LNR having just been recognized, they are not members of the CSTO. Not only that, but I very much doubt that all the members of the CSTO will recognize the LDNR anytime soon. So if there is the need to launch a “coercion to peace” operation, will Russia act unilaterally, maybe with Belarus, or will she try to get some kind of joint operation with other countries? This just in: the Russian MoD has announced that it received the order to provide/ensure the safety/security of the LDNR! That means a peace enforcement (coercion to peace) has been ordered!
Some will be tempted to focus on what the western politicians will say or do next. I sure have no idea which they might or might not do next, but I would advise them to be extremely careful, because the mood in Russia is determined. If anybody still believes that Putin is bluffing, then wish them good luck because the best they can hope for is a quick, painless, death.
For the US Americans everything is measured in Dollars. For Europeans, everything is measured by Euros. During WWII Russia lost 27 million of her own people, two thirds of them civilians, as for the Chinese, they lost a whopping 35 million. These are countries and nations which will not be broken, or purchased, by Dollars or Euros.
Then there is this: if the West slaps “sanctions from hell” on Russia, what will the leaders of the West do the day AFTER they impose such sanctions? The truth that the West is already “out-sanctioned”. But let’s assume that there will be even more sanctions. From hell, no less. Then what?
Nothing, of course.
Russia has already long turned away from the West, not only culturally but also economically (Mishustin confirmed that today). If the EU wants to commit economic seppuku – that’s fine by Russia. The Kremlin is quite willing to turn up the pain dial, but if western leaders want to increase the pain dial on each other (the US dialing up economic pain for the EU), by all means, Russia won’t object.
As always, I suggest that we not jump to any further conclusions too quickly: let’s wait for the full, official transcripts, then the statements of key politicians (who will be tasked with implementing/interpreting these statements). In this situation, words matter (at least those of Russian officials).
I will conclude by a warning: I fully expect the CIA/MI6 agents in Russia (5th column: liberals; 6th column: emo-Marxists and pseudo-patriots) to unleash a MAJOR PSYOP offensive against Putin personally and this decision. Arguments will include anything and everything in between “not enough” and “too much” including the inevitable “too little too late”. If there is one thing you need to know about both the 5th and 6th columns in Russia is that for them any success by Putin (or even while Putin is in power) is categorically unacceptable and must be denied at all costs. So while they claim to hate each other, they really hate Putin much more. In fact, they hate Putin much, much more than they love Russia. I strongly urge all the readers to always think cui bono when you will hear their endless defeatist wailing!
Okay, I will end it here: let’s see what happens next.