" One week into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine – update "
by Andrei Raevsky (a.k.a. The Saker)
The Vinyard of the Saker (March 7, 2022)

So we are a week in and I think it is time to take short pause and see what happened over the last 7 days.

Which tells me how truly impotent and frustrated they are :-) [emphasis added]
That being said, here is the good news: Today, one of our favorite trolls managed to bypass moderation and post this (see comment).

What is important here is to realize that whether this guy does it for money in a NATO troll farm or with utter sincerity, he is about to get a really big, probably huge, mental shock.

Right now, the entire western narrative hangs on this kind of nonsense: Russia is about to be totally defeated, the Ukie army and people have won on all fronts, and Ze, backed by NATO, the EU, the US and the entire planet is about to deliver his conditions for a Russian capitulation.

The maps?

All fakes.

The local reports?

All fakes too.
So far, that has worked pretty well. But here are the stone cold fact about the Ukie military:

So, in terms of the Russian goals, here is how I would score this:

One more thing I forgot to mention about the “no man’s land” west of the Donbass operational cauldron. It is shown in the map below where the black and yellow lines touch (and add about 5-10km on each side)

It’s not only that only small groups, maybe civilian cars at high speed can get out, it also means that the entire Nazi force in the Donbass is not getting resupplied. Not by air, not by sea and not by road. Right now, amazingly, the Ukronazis are STILL shelling the LDNR, today 5 civilians were murdered by Ukie selling near Donetsk. So they are not even trying to break out, I suppose they know the score and with their supplies running out (many destroyed by heavy bombs) their lifespan is now counted in days.

Please keep in mind that while this force is surrounded, it did have SEVEN YEARS to dig in deep and place tons of concrete over their bunkers. But like the Ligne Maginot, while the LDNR were pinning down the Ukies, the Russian enveloped them from behind.

So one of two things will now happen.

In other words, the real magnitude of the Ukrainian defeat will become impossible to conceal in just a few days. Then the narrative will shift from the “invincible Ukie Volkssturn” to “Russian atrocities”.

That narrative will also probably stick since the western free press makes the original Nazi press look outright diverse and objective. But idiots such as the troll above will be very, very butthurt. I expect their “oy veh!!!!” to reach high heavens and heroic Ukies will be replaced by no less heroic celebrities sobbing over Ukie babies.

On a strategic level, the Empire of Lies did successfully force Russia to openly intervene. That is a fact and that is a defeat with the Russians will have to ponder over for many years. I will repeat, here are two, alas very real, western victories:

But don’t get too upset too soon. For one thing, the authorities in Russia have FINALLY declared both Dozhd and Meduza as foreign agents and it seems these two zioliberal sewers are finally being shut down. Seeing how Medvedev is trying to repaint himself as a patriot, I think that the Atlantic Integrationists are now realizing that they were stupid to listen to the western propaganda. I have not followed the Russian 6th column at all, so I don’t know if they are still hoping that “Putin” (for them it is all about him, personally) will “lose” or whether they will chose to wrap themselves into the “too little, too late, I could have done better” flag. Frankly, I don’t really care.

Next, they will start seeing Russian 5th columnists and assorted “liberal” their signatures away from their “open letters” or, better, emigrating to the EU or Israel. I sincerely wish them a happy flight and I hope that upon leaving Putin’s Mordor and arriving in the Free West they will all burn their Russian passports (on camera if they want).

So, what’s my “final intermediate conclusion” after week 1?

The West gave Russia a bloody nose by forcing her intervention, thereby crushing any chance for the EU to get decolonized in the next decade or more.

The West gave Russia an even bloodier nose by very effectively controlling the narrative.

But what’s next?

Russia will/has disarm(ed) and will soon denazify the Ukraine, that is a given.

But what after that? Please remember that this is NOT about the Ukraine, this is about the entire future security architecture of Europe.

I will just say this: while, no, Russia won’t invade the EU or even Poland, the Russian war to push back NATO has only begun, it will last MANY MONTHS so be prepared for this. MONTHS.

Please ready yourself for a long and difficult struggle.