"OK, Let's Cut The Crap"
by Andrei Martyanov
Reminiscence of the Future (August 2, 2022)
... from the start--China got humiliated. There is no other way about it. Let me turn on here the famous Russian Вы не понимаете, Это Другое (You don't understand, This is Different) mode, usually used by Russia's pro-western liberda when trying to whitewash West's crimes and idiocy. Here it is:
As Ramzan Kadyrov correctly responded to this PR affair in his TG:
Translation: Why did they engage in fear-mongering, scaring people, creating the noise, when one could have allowed poor grandma to calmly fly to Taiwan. Everything could have been arranged calmly, silently, but no, poor grandma was being frightened with fighters, Air Defense, destroyers and loud statements.
I understand clearly the disappointment of many anti-globalists and China's sympathizers when observing this. I agree with Ramzan, though, as in a good fight--if you show your weapon, you better use it when time comes, otherwise keep it to yourself. But why this "This is Different" meme? Let me explain. As famous re-imagining of Nixon's Vietnam War "Peace with Honor" phrase goes: those who settle for peace with honor, get neither peace nor honor. The US can tell a lot about this issue, since we saw it on full display in Afghanistan last year. It took Russia several beatings of the US lap-dogs into bloody pulp starting in 2008 with Georgia, then in Syria and now in Ukraine, until Washington returned to its natural state of being a bellicose bully but scared shitless of engaging directly with Russia.
This all, despite the fact that the United States IS involved directly, as an example, in command-controlling and providing ISR to their Kiev SOBs. As the representative of Ukies' military intelligence (GUR) Vadim Skibitsky boasted to Telegraph (in Russian), including admitting the fact that the US is directly involved even in choosing targets for HIMARS. Primarily against civilians. But the US knows that it will be annihilated when it tries to "probe" a direct war with Russia even in fully conventional framework. It will be the US which will be forced towards nuclear threshold the moment it will begin to sustain losses it never encountered in its history. But this is not the case with China!
The obvious "this is different" issue behind Pelosi's PR escapades is the fact about which I write for years ad nauseam, such as here, among many other posts: the United States doesn't know how and cannot fight a serious enemy on the ground, but there is absolutely no doubt about the United States being a naval power, which DOES think and, in fact, HAS the means to impose some solution on China as long as the naval forces are involved directly. It is the only field in which the United States has an upper hand over China. I already presented on a number of occasions the comparison between he US Navy's and PLAN's submarine forces. Taiwan is an island, and unlike Georgia, let alone Syria and most of Ukraine, which Russia never declared as its territories, Taiwan for China is a huge, existential issue. Taiwan officially is considered by international community as part of mainland China, which has its semi-official status "temporarily". But because it is the island, and because the United States Navy can bring a massive firepower near it, the US has the escalation dominance here. And China knows it and she blinked.
Moreover, main China's mistake was this, however justified, bellicose rhetoric preceding walking mummy's visit to Taiwan and now the precedent had been created and IT IS already being spun by media. Of course, there is a school of thought which promotes the view that China prevented a nuclear war. I don't know, what I know for sure is this:
China begins military drills near Taiwan – reports
Should have been ongoing well before Pelosi's plane took off from the US and the scale of those drills, including at least the deployment of the Chinese Air Force, should have been massive, presenting a real threat in the area for any unauthorized flight. But now we may have on our hands, actually, a bigger problem--with China being forced to respond in such a way that she is not perceived as a "paper tiger" and that may (I underscore it--may, it is not preordained) lead to an attempt on Taiwan and that may involve the US Navy, especially its submarine force, which theoretically CAN score some significant military points, which are desperately needed for demoralized and economically strained United States in general and Biden Administration in particular. This is the price of the moment of weakness and indecisiveness and there is no way to spin it in any positive direction. But that only reinforces my long-standing position that in Russia-China relations, it is Russia who leads, exhibiting both great resolve, mastery of major military conflicts and the ability to withstand any kind of pressure. And that is what we know at this moment with full clarity. Let's keep watching...