Day 6 – Mr President, is Ukraine winning the war? (not a joke!)
by Andrei Raevsky (a.k.a. The Saker)
The Vinyard of the Saker (March 1, 2022)
This question was asked by some pressitute while Biden was walking to his helicopter today: Mr President, is Ukraine winning the war?
Wow, just wow. Either she fully believes it, and then WOW or she doesn’t and then WOW again.
This is a “Let’s Go Brandon” on a geostrategic level! :-)
By the way, she followed up with a question about whether he worried about a nuclear war.
I think that this exchange sums of the entire and total delusion which folks in the West are holding on. The inevitable wake up phase will be painful, very painful.
Then there is this (see graph) to keep in mind. Biden is down in the proverbial shits and, worse, pretty much anything he does next will only make things worse. The fact that this is an entirely self-inflicted wound makes no difference as to how hard it bleeds…
In other news from the “back to reality” corner: the UK and Poland have had to announce that, no, after careful thought and all things considered, they won’t be sending fighter aircraft into the Ukraine.
What a surprise to everybody in Kiev (and to nobody in Moscow)!
As for Uncle Shmuel, he declared that (trying to) imposing a no-fly would mean “shooting down Russian aircraft” which, for some unfathomable reason, the USA did not want to do. That might have something to do with Putin’s very blunt warning yesterday.
Maybe the western leaders are very slowly coming to realize that while Russians don’t threaten, they don’t bluff either. That is a “new normal” which is going to cause a lot of buttaches to the narcissists ruling the West…
The Eurorodents in all heroically walk out of the room when Lavrov addressed them by video. If the intention of the Eurorodents was to convey to the Russians that “we won’t ever listen to a single word you have to say” then I am confident that the Russians heard that message and will keep that factoid in mind in planning future unilateral Russians actions (of which there are plenty more to come, that is quite obvious now).
A few good news now: the nuclear plant at Zaporozhie is safely in Russian hands. Thank God for that.
So what has been the triumphant President “Ze” up to?
He signed an application to be immediately accepted into the EU. The new Europeans loved it. The old ones, not so much.
The Eurorodents are also forming what I would call “internationalist Nazi brigades” of volunteers who can go and fight for Banderastan. No visa needed – show up, declare your willingness to kill Russians, and, voila, you are shipped to…
… to the almost closed operational cauldron in the Donbass!
In fact, I suppose that by now getting in is about as hard and dangerous as getting out. Yes, technically, there is a no man’s land between the two Russian prongs (the one from the north and the one from the south), but it is now a Russian “free fire zone” which, considering both the presence of very heavy weapons systems (MLRS and TOS-1A) and the sharp increase in Russian air operations would be a very very dangerous attempt indeed.
Speaking of cauldrons, Russia has cut off the entire Ukrainian coast from the Sea of Azov and Mariupol is the first “cauldron” to be officially locked.
The civilized and winning West is showing that it really knows the score: Russian students are expelled from EU colleges (a similar idea is now floated in the USA), even neutral countries like Switzerland have closed their airspace to Russian carriers (which Switzerland really did not have to do since all the countries neighboring Switzerland already did that), and Russian citizens can’t even fly across Canadian airspace on their way home to the EU from the USA (just happened to a friend of mine). I fully expect “Russian Standard” vodka to disappear from US stores (we bought all the last ones we could).
Maybe we will soon be treated to YouTube videos showing (US or Ukie) Nazis machine-gunning Russian “matrioshka” dolls followed by thunderous cries of “Glory to the Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!“?
Russians are being expelled from sports clubs, musical events, cultural events and pretty much from everywhere where something “Russian” can be treated with hate and contempt.
These are Orwell’s two minutes of hate, but drawn out over days.
This is an russophobic Kristallnacht, but officially organized and praised.
I want to add one more thing about all this: nobody, absolutely NOBODY, is forcing the folks in the West to act the way they are. No Gestapo, no SA/SS patrols – nothing. Just the US PSYOPs and the eager willingness of these folks to “show Russia” in some way.
And since there are practically NO voices denouncing all this, this is also an important “message” from the people of Europe to the people of Russia.
This is EXACTLY what the Russian nation needs to understand the world it lives in.
THAT is the reality, not their smiles or promises.
Yesterday, Putin used the expression “Empire of lies” – and he is spot on. I will adopt that expression alongside my two favorites “AngloZionist Empire” and “the Axis of Kindness”.
In other “rodent news” – the OSCE is leaving the Donbass. Not that these fake humanitarians ever made a difference, but now that they are gone, it also sends a very clear message to the Russian people.
Remember how Woke-thugs approached white people in restaurants and demanded that the white “take a knee” or see “black lives matter”? The same is being done to Russians (and even non-Russians thought to be Russians) all over the democratic and civilized West.
“Cancel Russia” might be the unifying slogan (and goal) of the entire Zone A.
I have an idea: I think that western dictionaries should remove the word “Russian” and western maps should, from now on, just write “here be bears” on the map of Russia. THAT would show ’em accursed russkies :-)
And it is all repeated ad nauseam on Russian TV channels and on the Runet.
That will be neither forgotten nor forgiven.
The West is very much “talking to us” and “sending us a strong message”. We all need to hear and carefully record it all. For our children and for posterity.
I have to say that in Zone A the US PSYOPs gave Russia a massive thrashing and soundly defeated all the Russian counter-propaganda efforts. The Russian PR people got a black eye and lost this one.
Inside Russia, it is more complicated. As I mentioned, the Atlantic Integrationists (in power), the 5th column (liberal) and the 6th column (emo-Marxists) all joined forces and tried has hard as can be to inject a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubts (FUD) in the Russian society, from rumors of a NATO invasion to hallucinations about how the “sanctions from hell” will result in hunger, abject poverty and chaos.
The good thing is that by working hand in hand, they showed their true face and agenda. Their ideology can be summed up as follows “we cannot allow Putin to win this one”.
This is a very positive development as the disgust and anger against them is clearly on the rise while the latest polls show that:
• 68% of Russian approve of this military intervention
• 22% oppose it
• 10% are unsure
Of course, the Atlantic Integrationists, and the two columns (from now on I will refer to them all together as AI+5+6) will quickly dismiss these polls because, as all AI+5+6 know, “Russian polls are as fake as Russian elections”. I am confident that there is going to be legal action taken by the Duma and the Kremlin to, no, not “crush free speech” or anything like that, but to further unmask the real goals of this AI+5+6 coalition.
What about the situation on the ground?
1. Mariupol cauldron confirmed locked (a very large number of hardcore Nazis are surrounded)
2. Operational cauldron in the Donbass closing but not physically closed yet
3. Kiev blocked on all directions except the humanitarian corridor
In plain English this means:
1. Several days, difficult and violent combats to denazify Mariupol. The outcome is not in doubt, but all the ingredients are here to indicate a truly intense urban assault operation.
2. Donbass. Again, the outcome is not in doubt, I will announce it here as soon as I get enough convergent info to confirm the closure of this operational cauldron
3. Kiev – here I really don’t know. I get the need to resolve the Kiev situation in some way, but I remain deeply concerned by any Russian operation to liberate the city. Kiev is not Mariupol and while in Mariupol there are no other options than to kill all the Nazis, I will keep hoping for some negotiated solution similar to what is happening in a lot of (admittedly much smaller) towns in recently liberated eastern Ukraine.
Then there is the issue of Odessa. Honestly, there are a lot of rumors on the Runet that Russia intends to liberate the entire Ukrainian coast, including Odessa, and open a land corridor to the Russian forces in Transnistria. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov are infinitely smarter than me and they have the real info, which I don’t.
But I don’t want Russia to occupy in the mid-to-long-term a single inch of legally 404 land (outside the official borders of the LDNR, of course!). But then, I was also very concerned when Putin ordered the Syrian military operation, and he proved me wrong, so all I can do is try to not worry too much, hope that if there are any such plans, they will be similar to the 08.08.08 format: quick in, disarm, quick out.
I am encouraged by all the statements by Russian officials and analysts that Russia has no intention of holding on to any Ukrainian territory and that as soon as the Ukraine is disarmed and denazified, all the Russian forces will be pulled back. God willing, that is exactly what will happen soon.
Lastly, the Black Sea fleet. It seems to have cut off Ukie port from shipping and several ships have been stopped and turned back (not simply stolen like the French just did!). I am quite sure that before this is all over, we will see the Black Sea Fleet in action, possibly as part of an operation to liberate Odessa, here I defer to Andrei Maryanov and his expertise.
That’s it for now. Over the past 6 days I have been posting two, sometimes three, updates. Now since the situation on the ground is pretty clear, I will wait for a major development before posting a commentary. That could happen as soon as later today, but tomorrow seems more realistic to me. We shall see.