"Day 21 of the Russian special military operation – 3 questions"
By Andrei Raevsky (a.k.a., "the Saker")
The Vinyard of the Saker (March 17, 2022)
Today, I begin with this: something I would call a good summary of CNN’s wishful thinking
This has everything!
• Putin is a “pure thug”
• Russians are indiscriminately murdering civilians en masse
• “Ex-KGB” “agent” says what his CIA handlers tell him to
• Klitschko is as verbally clever as he always is
• China is about to screw Russia over
• Drones threaten NATO (apparently including Ukie ones?)
• A retired colonel opines that Russia is running out of manpower
• US casualties in Kiev
And against this deluge of lies, Bernhard at Moon of Alabama does a superb job deconstructing that kind of crap, see: here.
But it feels like such an uneven and lopsided battle…
How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?
I guess we will fight for as long as God gives us strength.
There were a few cities liberated today, here is the machine translation of Boris Rozhin’s report:
1. Mariupol. The cleanup of the city continues successfully. Advanced units reach the central areas, the enemy is gradually pushed back to Azovstal. Civilians continue to leave the city. The military on the ground are talking about the timing of the liberation of Mariupol – 4-7 days.
2. Ugledar. The village has not yet been officially taken, but to the north of it the troops are already advancing to Bogoyavlenka, with a subsequent movement to Kurakhovo. Prechistovka is taken from the west of Ugledar, which creates prerequisites for both movement to the north and for a U-turn to Velikaya Novoselka.
3. Maryinka-Avdiivka. There are no particularly serious advances yet. It is impossible to overcome the enemy’s powerful fortified areas with a rush. Aviation and artillery are trying to make the task easier, but so far the cumulative effect of multi-day strikes has not yet been achieved.
4. Gorlovka. Novotoretsk remained for the DPR. The APU counterattacks to retake the village were repulsed. Tomorrow, perhaps, the advance will begin either to Novoselka-2, or in the direction of New York.
5. LNR. They took Rubezhnoye, the enemy withdrew to Severodonetsk, where persistent street fighting continues. Lisichansk is not being actively stormed yet. The liberation of these cities is a matter of time. Fighting continues in the western part of Popasnaya, the city is not yet fully controlled by the LPR, the enemy stubbornly clings to it.
6. Kharkiv. Active fighting to the east of the city. There is no information confirming the occupation of even a part of Chuguev by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation yet. In Izyum, the enemy continues to defend themselves in the southern part of the city and tries to unblock the road in the Kamenka area, where the fighting is going on near the Izyum-Slavyansk highway. The front from the north is gradually shifting towards Slavyansk.
7. Kiev. Attempts of the APU to be active on the Vyshgorod-Gostomel-Bucha line ended with serious losses of the APU in people and equipment. A serious counteroffensive failed. It is noted that the western grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continues to methodically press south, trying to get out and gain a foothold in the Vasilkov area. In the east, Ukrainian sources report the occupation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of several villages on the outskirts of Brovary. There is no confirmation of this from our side yet.
8. Sumy and Chernihiv. Without major changes.
9. Nikolaev. Fighting north of the city. The city itself is blocked from three sides, but there is no assault. The transfer of reinforcements for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation through Kherson is noted. The Armed Forces of Ukraine expect the activation of operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this direction in the coming days.
10. Odessa. The ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation work on targets on the coast, complementing the work of aviation. There are no landing events, but the enemy is forced to keep serious forces here, for fear of missing the moment of the exhibition. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, having won complete dominance at sea, now performs a binding role, forcing the enemy to keep troops near Odessa that would be useful in the area of Nikolaev or Krivoy Rog.
Finally, no map today (I am too tired to wait for Readovka)
A final comment:
I think that we are headed for a partition of the Ukraine.
The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine.
The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”.
NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.
Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?
I guess is that the devil would be in the details.
For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment [emphasis added]. How likely is that?
I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future. First, the full magnitude of the economic suicide of the Eurolemmings has to become self-evidently clear, visible, undeniable and obvious. This will take weeks and even months to become fully obvious. [emphasis added]
Second, right now the USA, Poland and the UK want war. Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia). If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russian, then maybe something can be negotiated. If all the Ukie Nazis want to live there, well that fine by me, as long as the rest of the Ukraine can truly and firmly lock that border. That might require Russian to create a Russian military base somewhere west/southwest of Kiev with a function similar to the 201st base in Tadjikistan. And no, this is not a “good” solution, but that assumes better options.
Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to stay?
Lastly, there is the issue of border.
Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?
To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.
Do you share that feeling?
And, finally, please stay on topic!