"Day 11 – Putin’s last warning before beginning of the 2nd phase of the operation"
Andrei Raevsky, a.k.a., "The Saker"
The Vineyard of the Saker (March 6, 2022)

First, since Boris Rozhin did take the time to write up a summary for the day, I will begin by sharing with you a machine translation of his summary of the day:


Yesterday Putin had a most interesting conversations with members of what look like members of an flight attendant union. We hope to bring the the whole thing subtitled in English later today, but here is the key sentence made by Putin during that conversation:

Translation: If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility

I think that it is important to understand the context in which Putin made this statement. As a reminder

In other words, what seems to be shaping up is that Russia will soon have control over the entire Ukraine except for the western provinces (west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir). In other words, the war is over, at least militarily. There will be a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators tomorrow, and it shall be interesting to see if something, anything, will come out of it.

The west is clearly determined to heroically fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian. Russia wants to stop this operation as soon as possible, but only after her double goals of 1) disarmament and 2) denazification are achieved.

Right now the big question is Kiev. It’s a big city with plenty of civilians and probably 30-50 thousand combatants of all different kinds (VSU, SBU, Volkssturm, deathsquads, looters, etc.). The logical solution would be to offer the combatants (and the civilians) corridors to exit the city, but the West can’t have that.

Now if the Ukies won’t vacate Kiev, then some rather serious fighting will take place inside the city and clearing the city from the Nazis will demand the involvement of a major Russian force. It appears that these forces are now in their staging areas all around the city (except for the south).

Think about it this way: the frontline (line of contact) is now very long and the Ukies don’t have enough forces to even try to hold any frontline in such a context.

However, remember the number of Russian forces deployed along the Ukrainian border – about 100’000+ or so soldiers? It appears that there are currently not enough Russia forces to fully exploit the Russian advances over the past ten days. Alternatively, we could say that the Russian force is big enough, but that now it has to sharply increase its use of firepower to further develop its operations.

For all these reasons, here is what I suppose is in the making:

For all these reasons, and failing some kind of ceasefire, the next 7-10 days ought to see a sharp increase in Russian operations not only in the air and on the ground, but also on the sea where the Black Sea Fleet will be engaged to secure the Ukrainian coast line. The Russian might also have to do something about NATO’s intel/recon support for Ukrainian forces, either overtly or with a modicum of plausible deniability. [emphasis added]

Which begs one question: how far west are the Russians willing to go?

I don’t know. But I know that during his talk yesterday Putin indicated that “only” supporting and defending the LDNR would not be enough because the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass would receive a constant flow of support from the West [emphasis added].

Hence the Russian General Staff decided that it needed to do two things first: destroy the Ukrainian defense infrastructure and 2, encircle the Ukronazi forces in the Donbass by a envelopment/pincer movement from the south and the north. I still am waiting for a confirmation that this operational-level cauldron is locked, but nobody (that I know of) produced any recent map for today. Still, I think that we can safely assume that cauldron will be locked very soon (or has already been locked).

Still, major (relatively speaking) Ukrainian force concentrations have dug in and are ready for long urban combat operations in at least the following cities: Odessa, Dnepr and Kiev. Could the Russian military evict the Nazis from these cities? Yes, Mariupol is being cleaned up as we speak, but only at a high human cost (on all sides) and by bringing in more firepower (on the ground and in the air).

My guess is that the Russians have decided to clear the entire south front first. Russian forces are already in between Nikolaev and Odessa, and the Black Sea Fleet has reportedly conducted strikes southwest of Odessa. Right now the Black Sea Fleet is keeping the Ukrainians guessing whether there will be an amphibious assault and if yes, were.

I am no prophet, but a securing a bridgehead southwest of Odessa to then land an amphibious assault force and develop it all from there seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Once both Odessa and Nikolaev are either taken or, at least, solidly surrounded then Russia can free more forces to move north. Likewise, as soon as the operational cauldron in the Donbass is locked, this will also free more forces to then move west. If this is successful, then Russia will have achieved a strategic cauldron encompassing the entire Ukraine west of the Vinnitsa-Zhitomir line.

If this is not successful and Russians lose their tempo, then the only solution left will be to sharply increase the intensity of the entire operation. I think that this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he said “If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility“.

So, to sum it all up:

This is a totally depressing thought, but I see no other option for Russia but to turn up the “pain dial” on both the Ukrainians and the West and see if they are now willing to stop this war.

If not, then turn it up again, and then repeat as many times as needed until either 1) the West capitulates or 2) the Ukraine is unilaterally disarmed and denazified by Russia.

Here is what is also crucial to understand:

Russia was willing, when forced, to intervene in the Ukraine. If forced, Russia will take on any country, including any NATO member country, which will assist the Ukrainians militarily. If forced, Russia will even fight all of NATO and the USA together and, if forced, she will use all her weapons, including nuclear ones. And if that means that the entire planet is nuked then, as Putin said, “we have no need for a planet without Russia”. All this is to say that Russia is not bluffing, Putin will not back down and that there is no price which Russia would not be willing to pay to prevail in this existential war.

Russia will not stop until her existence is made safe again. [emphasis added]

What about the West?

I believe that the West has a “smartass policy”: we do fight down the the last Ukie, and we get as many Steppe Niggers and Snow Niggers to kill each other, but then we stop just short of nuclear war with Russia.

Question: do you trust the geniuses in power in the West to successfully walk this tightrope?

I sure don’t.

Reach your own conclusions.