"'Ukraine reveals the collapsing of the West' an interview of Andrei Martyanov"
by Andrei Martyanov
Reminiscence of the Future (March 22, 2022)
They are always anonymous, those "officials" and "experts" from Pentagon, CIA or NSA who "leak" info to US MSM. Moreover, for some reason they confide into the US "journalists" on the matters which cannot be confirmed and, something tells me that most of this "leakage" is nothing more than made-up shit by people who have zero real intel or military background and are nothing more than place-holders. If I would be Pentagon, I would be insulted, but then again--it is Modus Operandi of contemporary US institutions which are good only for PR and cannot perform anything tangible, like getting real intel, fighting real wars and conducting competent foreign policy. So, here we go again:
The Russian military has lost more than 10% of the combat force that President Vladimir Putin sent to invade Ukraine, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday. The Russian combat force has dipped slightly below 90% for the first time in a war that began less than a month ago, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe intelligence assessments. Not all of the more than 150,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine are combat troops; many provide support functions. Russian ground forces remain largely stalled across Ukraine, particularly around the capital of Kyiv, where their closest troops remain about 10 miles from the city’s center. The official described Ukrainian resistance as quick and nimble – and for the first time in the war seeking to retake ground from the Russians.
Well, this "senior official" is due to take basic course in tactics and operations which is the level of the second-third year cadet in any military academy in Russia, I am not sure about West Point, though. I heard some really disturbing things about academic level there from people who have taught and continue to teach there. Like this one, among many others:
So, something tells me that this Pentagon's "senior official" has either background in "communications" and political "science", or never attended, say, US Army War College. In the end, one can always safely assume that it is a classic case of a very painful butt-hurt and sour-grapes (aka professional envy) and that forces people to spew a complete BS. I spoke about this in depth with Piero San Giorgio, trying not to go too deep into tactical minutiae of the whole operation.
"Ukraine reveals the collapsing of the West" an interview of Andrei Martyanov, interview by Piero San Giorgio [43:56 minutes]
[0:53] Andrei Martyanov: [some personal comments about the dissolution of the Soviet Union and his Navy career] . . .
. . .
[2:10] Piero San Giorgio: "I feel you have a good feel for the Russian objectives."
. . .
[2:53] Andrei Martyanov: "Basically a continuation of the Soviet military with the removal of the communist ideology happened almost painlessly."
[4:43] Sun Tzu said: 'Know thy enemy and know thyself.' And the West doesn't know much about Russia. It never did, really."
[5:47] Piero San Giorgio"considered as a non-entity any more. History is finished ..."
[11:08] Piero San Giorgio: "When it started three weeks ago the information we received from the West didn't compute with my knowedge, which is modest, and the analysis I had from Soviet times, the Russian militiary history which I like to study. And it felt, of course, like propaganda, but it was propaganda that was insane, just wildly impossible. Soldiers going without fuel, going into battle without food. First of all: What is five days without food? We've all been in situations where you can be five days without food. But the fact that it was 100 kilometers from its starting bases you have no food supply, it's just impossible. I can understand if you're a thousand kilometers in the middle of an exploitation, but from the very beginning it made no sense.
[12:05] "However what is still difficult to understand, what is the objective? You seem to have a very clear explanation, what is the objective of Russia in this current situation?
[12:14] Andrei Martyanov: "Well, we have to understand, the only people who know the actual plan is Russia's general staff and political leadership: namely, Vladimir Putin and his closest people who, as the New York Times and Wall Street Journal based on some unknown sources in the intelligence communities: Putin's FSB, bodies under house arrest, it's just preposterous, OK? We already know about the Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq. I don't know how they can, basically, put themselves lower than that, you know? I'm not talking about the media. I'm talking about the intelligence community and what American generals are doing on the mainstream media is just preposterous. It's just totally unprofessonal. They evdidently lost completely their self respect by spewing this propaganda."
[13:14] "But the truth is, the more you see as you look at the operation, Putin, usually, he never wastes his time saying something in an obscure way. He's pretty straightforward. Two politial objectives. Demilitarization. Denazification. OK? We know the victory in the war is defined by achieving the political objectives of the war. That's how it is done. Not by showing the blowing up of something somewhere, although that is a part of it. So from these political objectives you derive political-military objectives -- Military-'dash'-Political objectives -- which are basically grinding or annihilation of the Ukrainian, primarily neo-nazi military machine."
"What does it involve? It involves literally, the physical obliteration of their hardware and capacity to make up this hardware. And, obviously, the second part is to deal with the best Ukrainian forces, around 70,000-80,000 grouping in the eastern Ukraine close to Donbas. And, you know, for eight years they're been digging in. They were creating those reinforced concrete, basically fortresses. And considering the complex terrain -- not including the landscape itself -- the terrain in terms of, practically, one huge town, or city if yhou wish. Fighting within urban combat environment, practically, non-stop. And, yes, it takes time, but as the fate of Mariupol showed, so they're beaten down to this small place compared to what they [formerly] occupied in Mariupol they are down to basically to the huge Azov steel metalurgical plant, but still."
[15:26] "And that's why it is what it is. It is practically non-stop urban combat. And what you see now, I would say again 80-85% of the hardware which is capable for fighting has been annihilated. So, basically, what is happening now is they are [conducting] mopping up operations and some blocking operations which are happening around Nicholaev and now Kiev is practically surrounded. That will be the squeezing of the cities, opening the humanitarian corridors, trying to save as many civilians as possible, and then basically continuing to annihiate VSU or whatever is left of it, because the VSU -- or Armed Forces of Ukraine -- it's immobile now. It cannot really manuever All of it is just now anchored to those urban centers."
[16:25] "And many people don't remember, but Ukraine has a number of very largec cities. Cities of about a million population. Kiev alone is three and a half million, if I remember correctly. So these are massive cities. And after that denazification starts from annihilation of neo-nazi structures, like AZOV Batallion -- more like a brigade -- they're not batallions. Regimenal and brigade size formations. And after that local administrations will be installed and some form of the Ukrainian armed forces will be reconstituted. New bases to keep a neutral Ukraine. And Ukraine will never more be a part of NATO". So that is already achieved. So, that's the main plan so to speak."
[17:25] Piero San Giorgio: [questions about the categories of military forces employed} ..."
[18:32] Andrei Martyanov:"Most of what we see, actually, today with the exception of the Air Force and some of what are called SSO units such as, like, the Chechen guys -- they're extremely well equipped -- most of what we see are not actually Russian troops. They are Donbas people, LDNR, the republics. They use, basically, older equipment. They use unmodified T-72's [tanks] STR-152 mm guns. So, it's not like we're seeing the actual Russian troops. And Russians prefer to keep it this way. But if you look at the way represented by Chechens, you see the Russian troops. I'm not talking about the paratrooper, obviously, a completely different story altogether. And their equipment is totally different."
"... [aound Kiev and some other locations] there's a lot of new equipment there..."
[19:58] But you are correct stating that the best equipped Russian troops are held back in case NATO begins to do stupid things, they will be the ones who will be countering it. But whatever Russia -- I'm not talking about Donbas troops, LDNR forces operating while in concert with Russia, they are fairly different military formations themselves. They are closer to the Ukrainian army in terms of equipment. But they are obviously under Russian C4ISR. Russia does provide all necessary intel and combat control, battlefield control, if need be for the formations of the LDNR."
[20:40] "So, in this case you are absolutely correct. The best of the cream of the cream are still back. But what Russian troops we see, they're pretty good. Just to give you an example. It has been confirmed even a few SU-57s are now fighting. And the use of stand-off weaponry and hypersonic weapons now. It's all there. It's all documented. Including the longest shoot-down of a Ukrainian Su-27 by S-400 about a week ago was about 150 kilometers, the longest shoot-down of a combat aircraft by an actual air-defense complex. So Russia always provides significant forces."
[21:35] "And the last thing that has to be remembered, Russian and LDNR forces are outnumbered by about two-and-a-half times by VSU. Right now, I think it's less of the case since so many of them have been annihilated and whole brigades have been written off the order of the battle."
[21:56] Piero San Giorgio: "That was a very good point and something that struck me. And I still fail to understand the rationale. Is it, usually we learn that we attack three to one minimum. So it seems that Russia attacked, from what we can gather, one against two on average. Is it overconfidence? Is it the firepower that is so high that these ratios make sense suddenly? Or is it the air power, and that was the other question I had, maybe I joined both questions. It's very difficult to get information as to what wa the real effect of air power and the density of the air power campaign. It know a little bit of pieces here and there. But the air power must have been significantly powerful. Was this that was the multiplier that helped with this very bold -- and very ballsy -- to attack at one against two and keeping much of the forces that are on the border that are still kept in reserve?"
[23:07] Andrei Martyanov: "You used a very good term: multiplier. And I am on record, this campaign will be studied in military academies for decades to come. That is why so many people in the West were so uncomforable because Russians themselves admitted, Yes, we're outnumbered. But it has nothing to do with overconfidence. It has everything to do with the eight years when Russia -- which has a damn good satellite surveillance constellation and obviously excellent electronic intel and recon capability and that oviously has human intelligence on the ground -- for eight years you could see where, how, and why VSU armed forces of Ukraine were going and doing. All targets have been reconned already, long before. And, for example, everybody knew that for the first several days, the only thing they will do, the Ukrainians, once Russia unleashes their airpower and, of course, stand-off weapons: cruise missiles, all kinds of things. The only thing which will happen after that is their stores and depots destroyed. They will have a very large percentage of their armor and transportation destroyed, which did happen in the first week.
"So, what option to they have? And that's probably how they have been instructed by their NATO instructors and advisers. To survive you have to fall back into the urban areas. You do that, you're done. You lose your maneuver. You lose the ability to deliver any kind of reinforcements. And the truth is Russia was pretty much controlling most of their lines of communications from the Day 3 or 4. There is a lot of, how do you say it, wherewithout there especially after the most dangerous S-300 stations have been taken out. Then there was the issue of BUK and the Russians lost several SU-25s, KA-52s, and Mi-24s shot down or disabled. But that was pretty much expected, obviously.
[25:50] "So, it's not arrogance or overconfidence. It's pretty much how it was planned. And after that, you just go and grind. Because inevitably -- and I'm 100% positive it was calculated -- that, inevitably, you will have to fight in the cities. The urban combat was ready. They prepared this 5000 chechen brigade, the guys who do the mop-up urban combat together with Russian SSOs, forces for the special operations. And that is exactly what is happening in Mariupol and cities and towns within what is now the full territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts, or regions. And LDNR, oviously, have their own resources. That's how it goes now. "
[26:46] Piero San Giorgio " ... "
. . .
[33:57] Andrei Martyanov: "After that [partition], whatever is left let them do what they want. Just No NATO. No armed forces. No nazis. . . . but [whatever] they're not going to threaten Russia."
[38:27 "They have to understand that Putin -- and this is a well-known fact -- Better take the first Putin's proposal, or offer. Because the next one will be much worse. Not the next one? The third one will be even worse, you know. . . . until nothing short of unconditional surrender will be accepted, if they want to play this game. Sure."
Which, accidentally, develops well and that what makes existence of those anonymous "senior officials" absolutely excruciating for them if they exist in reality. Meanwhile, Russia's Black Sea Fleet is doing its thing (I guess by "running out of ammo") launching salvos of most likely 3M14 at some ground targets by merely exiting Northern Bay of Sevastopol and developing a firing solution across from wonderful beach of Uchkuevka.
In related Black Sea news. Admiral Makarov observed the night mining of the approaches to Odessa by some Ukie jalopy and simply "asked" it to GTFO by means of using Shtil Air Defense missile in anti-shipping capacity (3M54 Kaliber would have disintegrated the junk with all hands dead) for both humanitarian and fiscal reasons and the thing is not mining the sea anymore (in Russian).
Here is video of mop up of Mariupol. It is literally a job of going through every floor, every apartment getting VSU and Nazi remnants out of there.
I wonder if this "senior official" from Pentagon has a clue on how to fight while trying to save as many civilians, used by regime as human shield, simultaneously. I doubt it. So, here is you primer of sorts for Tuesday.